A Sloppiness Born of Complacency

What is Proof of Concept?

Proof of concept is a realization of a certain idea, method or principle in order to demonstrate its feasibility, or viability, or a demonstration in principle with the aim of verifying that some concept or theory has practical potential. A proof of concept is usually small and may or may not be complete.

Joe Biden said “Take the win.”

Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said, "All of the world tonight saw what Iran is.”

On the Sunday talk show circuit in the US everyone was suddenly and briefly praising Israel. For two hours there was a fear that Israel was about to be severely damaged in Iran’s barrage. Fortunately and with the right defensive shield in place, plus with the help of Israel’s defense allies, the attack was 99% unsuccessful.

But as my father would have said to my older and smarter brother, “what happened to the other 1%/?”

This was not The Six Day War, nor was it Entebbe. The political leadership in Israel nor the Defense establishment should not be patting themselves on the back for “a job well done”.

In March 2019, 35,000 Gazans marched on the Gaza fence separating Israel from the Gaza Strip. In the past two years reports were sent up the intelligence chain of command that motorcycles were driving up and down the Gaza side of the fence and there was a lot of hand glider activity on the Gaza side of the fence.

This information fell on deaf ears. The intelligence was there. These were all practise runs for the October 7th Massacre.

If Iran really wanted to hurt Israel they could have sent 300 missiles to Israel via Lebanon in a matter of minutes. Instead, they warned the world that there would be an attack on Israel in 2 hours. What military force gives its enemy a warning that they are about to be attacked?

Yet we look at this as a win.

Even 1% is not an option we should consider as a win.

The fact is that Iran was quite successful. The 1% that managed to get through reached its target, the Nevatim Air Force Base in the Negev.

If Iran really wanted to hurt Israel they could have sent 3000 missiles to Israel either from Iran or Lebanon, not slow-moving drones. One percent of 3000 missiles would be 30 direct and fatal hits, perhaps destroying the F35 Air Force base.  One percent of 30,000 missiles would be 300 direct and fatal hits.  Just imagine the destruction.

In an analysis for The Times of Israel, written by Lazar Berman in May 2021 titled, “”Iron

Dome Has Saved Many Lives, but Has It Made Israel Safer?” he writes, "The Iron Dome can only provide temporary shelter for Israeli civilians while dangers continue to multiply just across the borders.” - https://www.timesofisrael.com/iron-dome-has-saved-many-lives-but-has-it-made-israel-safer

The whole exercise was a Proof of Concept on Iran’s part. They were testing to see if their drones could make it to Israel. They were testing the strengths and weaknesses of the defensive shield over Sunni lands and they were testing the resolve of their enemies, both Israeli and Arab.

This was just a practise run.

The exercise was a brilliant success for Iran. Their Proof of Concept is viable and once again Israel and its allies are being sloppy in their complacency.